http://blog.wittmannnews.com/ has opened the flood gates to local debate about the effectiveness of U.S. Senator John McCain. McCain has been in Washington since 1982 first serving as a Representative in 1986 he was elected Senator and has held that seat ever since having ran unsuccessfully for President twice. His opponent is ready for to bring home the losses John McCain claim but can't show voters the immediate or historical value of his presence in office. As one senior citizens living near Sun City says "McCain agrees with whoever company he is in at the time and then goes and votes with his buddies at the bar" Glassman says it is time for a cool change and he has the know how to get the job done right the first time.
We have the whole month of October to get through and there are several factors I am watching with McCain's 14 point lead. Anything goes in elections and there are enough set-ups that could change the election overnight…I will suggest a few.
1. McCain spun out of control and nose dived during the last two months leading up to the Presidential election. He could do it again trying to over indulge his self made ego of having to get back to D.C. to run things or the country will crash.
2. I am curious as to how accurate the polling really is because: There is a large demographic of voter who is unreachable by phone to poll. By this I am largely describing a Latino base that is hugely Democratic, another are young voters who do not respond to polls or hang up when receiving them to save their minutes and third are the newbie’s to Arizona who haven't drifted in to the Polling Services radar yet.
Another consideration that I am watching is that five out of seven House Races are being led by Democratic candidates in Arizona. I make this observation according to recent reports, the lists of contributors for each district and the total of registered party members.
I say following the money is a strong indicator of where the influencing votes will be. The trouble with this theory for Glassman is two of the House seats that are led by Republicans are in McCain's Senate district. Also we can’t follow the money in the Senatorial race because McCain has spent over $26 million up to now of his own (wife’s) money…Glassman is working a campaign the old fashion style with donations from John Q. Citizen nearing the $2 million mark.
Despite this…the population makeup of districts leaning toward Republican House Candidates and McCain, it should be noted that they are dismal and in remote locales compared to the big three Flagstaff, inner Phoenix-Scottsdale and southern Maricopa County and Tucson.
Even where McCain is tied down like a sailor at a gay bachelor party, things can swing left suddenly especially if a scandal or distasteful concern involving McCain consumes the last two weeks of the campaign. This could cause McCain unwilling supporters (Tea Partiers) to stay at home as well as it could cause over confidence among older voters whose sudden cases of voting day lumbago have them down in November, instead choosing to stay home thinking that the campaign is sewed up…this as we all know can be a campaign loser especially during the last two weeks!
Let us not forget the Housewife of Prescott Valley and her daughter Megan. They are both pro-gay, heirs of a beer distributing dynasty and Twitter-Facebook friendly along with every media's dream to get in print or on the air to hear what the other will say or endorse next. Meagan may be the biggest threat because of Glassman's deep rooted environmental PhD and looks. I truly believe she’d abandon daddy for the good of Arizona and America. The big strike would be if she was to come out as being gay it would force Daddy to admit he support his little girl having the right to marry or admit he refuses to support his kids.
Megan looks and talks like she is straight but how do you really know? If she is gay and since October is National Coming Out month there could be a surprise for the Senator and some Arizonans may be coming to accept that they are not that committed to McCain. If in any way she decides to be vocal it could cause some vessels to surface on Senator John’s forehead. Mama McCain may be waiting in the wings to rip her husband a new one for those humiliating masquerades with Palin where he looked worse off than Ronald Reagan did dead. Of course for the record Megan has always stated she isn't gay. But what a lifesaver she could be to Arizona if she was!
Plus in November we have two major media changes happening. Larry King goes out and Piers Morgan comes in…the fact that if controversy is brewing Megan or Mama McCain could be big draws to CNN, morning news shows and outweigh any ad agencies mudslinging campaign that Rodney Glassman could've came up on his own accord.
All these scenarios indeed are unstable factors that could act alone or join in concert to bring those cold sweats and nightmares back to McCain of that dark period of his life when he flew to Alaska to find a running mate.
Glassman’s goal should be to gain 3 percentage points every week until the election. Spend wisely and construct a communication outlet that is pumping information twenty four hours a day to voters who wouldn’t otherwise get the information or who wouldn’t pay attention to it if they did. How many times did G.W. say he had been told you have to repeat things over and over until everyone hears it? This can be a winner for Glassman but he has to strike some nerves and even knock away at a vein or two to strip some gold from McCain in order to do it.
Glassman needs to get McCain to play defense 24-7 from here out. McCain will destroy himself. The point that Glassman made during the campaign that he wasn't running against John McCain but for Arizona is nice. But nice and honesty never wins a poker game which is what he is in right now. Once he is in D.C. Glassman can be nice and honest right now its cut-throat and McCain has nothing to counter with when his opponent is so new he is as squeaky clean as a brand new car!
But like I said before…I never second guess juries or voters…and in this race I am a believer that while polls say differently I say the last vote isn’t in yet.